In this guide
You're weighing a job offer, a move, something expensive. Or something's gone wrong and you're sure it'll sit on you for months. Or it's Friday and you want the weekend to count. Each time you're guessing how you'll feel, and the guesses go off in a few predictable directions.
People overestimate how long a bad feeling will last. Evidence: decent When predicting how much they'd enjoy something, another person who'd just done it was a better guide than the description, though most people expected the opposite. Evidence: decent Minds wander about half the time, and mood is lower when they do. Evidence: decent And women nudged to prize happiness enjoyed a happy film less, through disappointment. Evidence: decent None of this is brain scans. It's what people predicted and reported about their own mood. Evidence: decent
Three popular versions go too far. "You always bounce back": people overrate how long it hurts, but whether they overrate how bad it hits at first is disputed. Evidence: decent "Any mind-wandering makes you unhappy": interesting daydreams went with a better mood than staying on task. Evidence: decent "Wanting happiness backfires": chasing it went with lower well-being in the US, but higher in Russia and East Asia. Evidence: decent
Guessing how it'll feel
Your forecast is a guess, and it tends to run long on the bad stuff. Evidence: decent Check it against your own record, and against someone who's been there. The asking studies were a speed date and a peer evaluation, not job moves, so for the big calls it's one input, not the answer. Evidence: decent
Happiness
You'll feel better sooner than you think
After a setback, write one line on how bad you think it'll feel in a month. Set a reminder to read it then.
2 minEvidence: worth trying
Happiness
Ask someone who's done it
Trying something short and new, a course, a trip, a restaurant? Ask someone who's just done it how it was. Trust that over the description.
5 minEvidence: worth trying
Friends
Talk to the cashier
Small talk with people you don't know. The barista, the neighbour, the man at the next bench. Thirty seconds.
no timeEvidence: decent
Chasing it
Aim at the thing, not the mood. Keep the bar modest and the good stuff rare enough to notice.
Happiness
Don't make happy the goal
This week, pick one thing worth doing for its own sake. Do it, and don't stop to check how happy it's making you.
1 weekEvidence: worth trying
Mood
Expect less, enjoy more
Before something you're looking forward to, lower the bar on purpose.
no timeEvidence: worth trying
Happiness
Give it up for a week
Pick one small treat you have most days, the chocolate, the pastry, the good biscuits. Skip it for seven days, then have it again, slowly.
1 weekEvidence: worth trying
Where your head is
Interesting daydreams went with a better mood than staying on task. Evidence: decent Leave those alone and catch the dull drift.
Flat for a few weeks, with sleep or appetite off and no interest in things you used to like: that's not a forecasting error, it's a doctor visit. It's common and it's treatable. Evidence: solid No amount of better guessing fixes it.