Open the one you're avoiding

When the news is likely to be bad, people look less. Investors logged into their accounts less often after the market fell. In a larger study of retirement savings accounts, logins dropped by 9.5 per cent after a fall. Economists call it the ostrich effect. Evidence: decent

Those studies are about investments, not bills or bank balances, and they were worked out from when people logged in, not from asking them why. That the same pull keeps the envelope closed on the side is my assumption. Evidence: worth trying

Writing a guess first is my addition, and untested. It gives you something to check the real number against. Evidence: worth trying

One. Not the pile. Once it's open, it's a number, and you can plan around a number. You can't plan around a closed envelope.

If the number is more than you can see a way through, talk to a free, independent debt advice service before you do anything else. Not one that charges you, and not one selling you a loan.